NFL playoff picture: Dolphins blow chance to stick with Ravens atop AFC

The Miami Dolphins had a Monday night win over the Tennessee Titans all but in the bag, but they found a way to blow it, surrendering two Titans touchdowns in the final three minutes to lose a home heartbreaker 28-27. The loss sends their record to 9-4, and while they remain the No. 2 seed

The Miami Dolphins had a Monday night win over the Tennessee Titans all but in the bag, but they found a way to blow it, surrendering two Titans touchdowns in the final three minutes to lose a home heartbreaker 28-27. The loss sends their record to 9-4, and while they remain the No. 2 seed in the AFC, they coughed up a big opportunity to stick with the 10-3 Baltimore Ravens at the top of the AFC.

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As for the rest of the NFL, Week 14 saw plenty of movement in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at where things stand entering Week 15.

Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock.

AFC playoff picture

SeedTeamRecordWeek 14 result

1

10-3

W vs. LAR

2

9-4

L vs. TEN

3

8-5

L vs. BUF

4

8-5

L vs. CLE

5

8-5

W vs. JAX

6

7-6

L vs. NE

7

7-6

L vs. CIN

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

The Ravens are the first 10-win team in the AFC and found yet another way to win a thrilling game Sunday with a walk-off punt return in overtime. Quarterback Lamar Jackson tallied 316 passing yards, 70 rushing yards and three passing touchdowns in a dominant performance against the Rams in the rain.

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

Odds: To make playoffs: 99.2 percent | To earn bye: 47.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 14.5 percent

TYLAN WALLACE ICES THE GAME ❗❗❗ pic.twitter.com/On4jjuacED

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 10, 2023

The Dolphins were shorthanded in their loss to the Titans, but a home loss to a rebuilding team isn’t going to inspire confidence for the playoff hopes of a team that’s been competing for a No. 1 seed. The Dolphins’ .325 strength of victory is the worst in the AFC and the third worst in the NFL, only better than the Saints and Giants. That’s a substantial statistic for a team with an unproven track record when entering a playoff field against some talented teams that have been contending for several years.

Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

Odds: To make playoffs: 97.7 percent | To earn bye: 24 percent | To win Super Bowl: 11.3 percent

The Chiefs have lost four of six, and they’re finding new ways to betray themselves in late situations, this time with Kadarius Toney clearly lining up offside to negate a go-ahead touchdown in their loss to the Bills. Whether it’s drops, penalties or other self-inflicted mistakes, the Chiefs have been failing in clutch situations where they’ve been so successful with Patrick Mahomes, who can’t do it all himself. The Chiefs have a very manageable schedule over the final month, but they’re short on time to fix mistakes that have recurred throughout the season.

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Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

Odds: To make playoffs: 98.4 percent | To earn bye: 22.8 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12.4 percent

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Credit quarterback Trevor Lawrence for playing through a high ankle sprain, taking a beating throughout the game and still giving the Jaguars a chance in the loss to the Browns. However, the Jaguars have some concerns to rectify. They turned it over four times, including three Lawrence interceptions, and it’s the seventh time this season they’ve had multiple giveaways. And the Jaguars have now given up 31 points in back-to-back losses to backup quarterbacks. The combination of ball security issues and shaky defense is not a recipe for an extended stay in the postseason.

Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

Odds: To make playoffs: 89.3 percent | To earn bye: 2 percent | To win Super Bowl: 3.9 percent

The Browns improved to 3-4 this season in games started by a backup quarterback with the 31-27 victory against the Jaguars, and this was something of an offensive explosion for them — they had been averaging 14.3 points per game in their previous six outings with a backup QB. Another issue: They’ve given up at least 27 points in four of their last five games, so the defense has tapered off after a dominant start.

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

Odds: To make playoffs: 87.5 percent | To earn bye: 3.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 2.5 percent

WOW. Flacco to Bell for a 41-yard TD on 4th down

📺: #JAXvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/ahXgynubN2

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

The Steelers own the tiebreakers over the other five AFC teams with 7-6 records, but it won’t matter if they continue to play the way they did in the back-to-back losses to a pair of cellar-dwellers in the Cardinals and Patriots. If that’s how they looked against a pair of three-win teams, can they be trusted to improve against a far more difficult final group of opponents down the stretch?

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Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

Odds: To make playoffs: 28.6 percent | To earn bye: 0.4 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0 percent

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The Colts have overachieved with an injury-depleted roster but lost a tough one Sunday to a suddenly improved Bengals team. Those games against the Steelers and Texans bookend an easier stretch, but they’ll have to win at least one of the tougher two and get some help from the tiebreakers to ward off the pack.

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

Odds: To make playoffs: 48.4 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

In the hunt:

• Houston Texans (7-6)
Denver Broncos (7-6)
• Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
• Buffalo Bills (7-6)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
• New York Jets (5-8)
• Tennessee Titans (5-8)

Eliminated:

• New England Patriots (3-10)

NFC playoff picture

SeedTeamRecordWeek 14 result

x--1

10-3

W vs. SEA

2

10-3

W vs. PHI

3

9-4

L vs. CHI

4

6-7

W vs. ATL

5

10-3

L vs. DAL

6

7-6

W vs. LV

7

6-7

L vs. NYG

x — Clinched playoff berth | y — Clinched division title

With their 28-16 victory against the Seahawks, the 49ers have won by an average of 19.4 points during their five-game streak. They’ve only won a single game by one score all season — 30-23 against the Rams back in Week 2.

The 49ers are the first team to officially clinch a playoff berth this season.

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Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 66.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 23.4 percent

PURDY. DEEBO. 🎯

📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/5KdVtUvjzZ

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

The Cowboys improved to 7-0 at home this season with their victory against the Eagles, and they’re averaging 39.9 points and two takeaways per game in Dallas. Conversely, they’re 3-3 on the road and averaging 23.7 points and 1.2 takeaways per game.

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There’s some necessary context as four of their last five games have been at home as they’ve also begun to play their best football of the season. Still, it goes to show how much more dangerous they’ll be if they can steal the NFC East from Philly.

Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 8.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 9.5 percent

FINAL: The @dallascowboys move into first place in the NFC East. #PHIvsDAL pic.twitter.com/ahnE5LPGIL

— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2023

The Lions have been teetering for several weeks, although they’ve managed to survive most of their close calls. But it’s a concern the Bears controlled much of the 28-13 affair, and quarterback Jared Goff’s shakiness in the turnover department has been a problem of late. He threw two interceptions and had a fumbled exchange with the center, marking the third time in the last four games Goff has coughed up multiple turnovers. When the Lions were rolling earlier in the season, Goff was as sure with the ball as just about any QB in the league.

Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

Odds: To make playoffs: 98.9 percent | To earn bye: 0.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 4.1 percent

Quarterback Baker Mayfield rallied the Bucs past the Falcons to take over first place in the division. It’s possible the NFC South sends a sub-.500 team into the playoffs for the second consecutive season and the third time since 2014. Their reward would likely be a wild-card date with the NFC East runner-up (Eagles or Cowboys). With the Bucs, Falcons and Saints all 6-7, there’s time for plenty more drama in this division.

Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

Odds: To make playoffs: 40.9 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.4 percent

CADE OTTON 🤯

📺: #TBvsATL on CBS pic.twitter.com/8MOW0tazGC

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 10, 2023

The Eagles got off to a 10-1 start without playing at their best because of their mental toughness and strong ability to close out tight games in crunchtime. But over the last two losses to the 49ers and Cowboys, the Eagles were doomed by slow starts and couldn’t catch up to a pair of NFC powers that have been at their best. Now, the Eagles know they’ve got ground to make up if they’re going to get through either team in the playoffs.

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Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 24.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 9.1 percent

Well, they all count the same. The Vikings’ 3-0 win against the Raiders kept them a game up on a quartet of teams with a 6-7 record. The concern is the Josh Dobbs magic may be expiring. Coach Kevin O’Connell evaluated the QB situation during their bye week, and Dobbs was replaced Sunday by Nick Mullens. Their remaining schedule is far too daunting to assume the Vikings are safely in the playoff picture based on their QB play over the past three games.

Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

Odds: To make playoffs: 67.6 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.7 percent

The Packers were flat across the board in their loss to the Giants and blew an opportunity to keep their buffer over the other four teams with 6-7 records, so they’re clinging to the tiebreaker for now. Their playoff positioning will hinge on one player the rest of the way: Jordan Love. Is he the quarterback who led them to the recent three-game winning streak or the one who struggled with accuracy for much of the Monday night defeat? We’re going to find out.

Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

Odds: To make playoffs: 56.9 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.8 percent

In the hunt:

• Los Angeles Rams (6-7)
• Seattle Seahawks (6-7)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• New Orleans Saints (6-7)
• New York Giants (5-8)
• Chicago Bears (5-8)
• Washington Commanders (4-9)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

Eliminated:

• Carolina Panthers (1-12)

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

What we learned in NFL Week 14: The Cowboys make a statement, the Chiefs are frustrated and more

(Top photo: Rich Storry / Getty Images)

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